3 Ways To Predict Forex Price Action
There are three main ways to analyze Forex price action and to predict if a currency pair will rally or drop. The different methods discussed in this article have their pros and cons, but they are all handy in determining which trade setups have higher odds of winning. You can base your choice of analysis on your preference and skills, but you can also try to use all methods together in making trades.
The first kind of forex analysis is known as fundamental analysis. This involves looking at mostly economic data in predicting if a country's currency will appreciate or depreciate. Strong economic data usually leads to currency appreciation while weak economic data leads to currency depreciation.
In line with this, fundamental analysis takes a look at supply and demand factors based on monetary policy and interest rates. Bear in mind that a country's central bank is in charge of monetary policy setting and they could control the amount of cash in circulation. As such, they are partly responsible for affecting the value of the currency. Political and environmental factors also play a role in fundamental analysis, as these also affect economic performance later on.
Second, there's technical analysis. This kind of analysis takes a look at past price behavior and uses these patterns in predicting how price will fare in the future. To be specific, technical analysis is involved with chart formations and candlestick patterns, which are both very useful in predicting future price movement.
Technical indicators which are placed on forex charts are also part of technical analysis. Leading and lagging indicators are the typical ones being used and these include the RSI, moving averages, or Bollinger Bands. You can combine the use of different indicators to provide early signals and get confirmation from others. Technical traders also look at inflection points or support and resistance levels in analyzing price action.
The third kind of forex trading analysis is sentiment analysis. With this method, a trader takes a look at how bullish or bearish markets are. It also involves looking at risk appetite, which is a gauge of how risk-hungry or risk-averse traders are.
When risk is on, traders tend to go for higher-yielding currencies which carry more risk. When risk is off, traders usually buy lower-yielding currencies which carry less risk, such as the dollar or yen. The Commitment of Traders report is a useful tool in identifying if large speculators or retail traders are bullish or bearish on particular currencies.
Combining these three kinds of analysis can lead to better profitability as it would help a trader come up with a more holistic view of the markets.
The first kind of forex analysis is known as fundamental analysis. This involves looking at mostly economic data in predicting if a country's currency will appreciate or depreciate. Strong economic data usually leads to currency appreciation while weak economic data leads to currency depreciation.
In line with this, fundamental analysis takes a look at supply and demand factors based on monetary policy and interest rates. Bear in mind that a country's central bank is in charge of monetary policy setting and they could control the amount of cash in circulation. As such, they are partly responsible for affecting the value of the currency. Political and environmental factors also play a role in fundamental analysis, as these also affect economic performance later on.
Second, there's technical analysis. This kind of analysis takes a look at past price behavior and uses these patterns in predicting how price will fare in the future. To be specific, technical analysis is involved with chart formations and candlestick patterns, which are both very useful in predicting future price movement.
Technical indicators which are placed on forex charts are also part of technical analysis. Leading and lagging indicators are the typical ones being used and these include the RSI, moving averages, or Bollinger Bands. You can combine the use of different indicators to provide early signals and get confirmation from others. Technical traders also look at inflection points or support and resistance levels in analyzing price action.
The third kind of forex trading analysis is sentiment analysis. With this method, a trader takes a look at how bullish or bearish markets are. It also involves looking at risk appetite, which is a gauge of how risk-hungry or risk-averse traders are.
When risk is on, traders tend to go for higher-yielding currencies which carry more risk. When risk is off, traders usually buy lower-yielding currencies which carry less risk, such as the dollar or yen. The Commitment of Traders report is a useful tool in identifying if large speculators or retail traders are bullish or bearish on particular currencies.
Combining these three kinds of analysis can lead to better profitability as it would help a trader come up with a more holistic view of the markets.
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